Happy Championship weekend!
With the Rams travelling to New Orleans and Tom Brady and the Patriots heading to what could be some arctic conditions in Kansas City, we have some serious teams playing to qualify for the SuperBowl.
We all know that these are the four highest scoring teams in the NFL and many are going to be taking the over. It’s natural to do so as it’s more exciting to be cheering for the score than the defensive stop. 56.5 is the over/under in both games. One is indoors and the other looks like being in cold but stable conditions. I don’t generally bet the under/over and I won’t be tomorrow but if I was I would be taking the over in the Chiefs/Patriots game. I think Mahomes and the Chiefs will get points on the board early which will create a shootout. This season has shown that to beat the Chiefs you need to rack up a big score.
That being said I think the Chiefs record at Arrowhead and the Patriots record on the road has me thinking the Chiefs can win and can cover the -3. A team that scores as heavily as the Chiefs is always value to cover a line that is 3 or under. Mahomes and Hill in particular may be a bit too much to handle for the Patriots and when it does turn into a shootout I am not sure the Patriots can keep up.
Drew brees and the Saints seem like they are in a season that has greater things in line for them despite not being overly impressive last week. The Saints to be honest were lucky to get out of the game and if it wasn’t for a dropped catch inside the 30 with plenty of time on the clock the Eagles may have been back in the NFC Championship game. The Rams were impressive and never looked in much trouble against the Cowboys and covered the -4.5 spread. I think this is going to be extremely tight and could come down to a play inside the 2 minute warning. As a result I am leaning towards the Rams at the line.
KC -3
LA Rams +3
In a bit over an hour Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints are going to demonstrate why they are on track to play in this year’s Super Bowl. The Saints destroyed the Eagles 48-7 back in November and whilst the Eagles have played some good football since they are just not going to be able to keep up. The Saints may have had the cue in the rack for the last month but expect them to release their stars today. I am taking the Saints to win by 14+ (+246).
We sat out the Patriots/Chargers game today as I didnt have the confidence to back in the Patriots. It can be difficult to know when the party is over. It’s not yet and they will take a whole lot of beating against the Chiefs next week.
$75 on the Saints to win 14+ to win $109.50
Last week Cory Parker cost us a lot of money!!We had the bet right but the Bears offence choked and cost us our 1-13. We move on and deal with it but put it to the back of our minds about the Bears offence for 2019 and beyond!!
Colts @Chiefs
This week we have the most fascinating weekend of NFL for the season thus far. Patrick Mahomes and the irresistible Chiefs offence take on the hottest team in the NFL. Andrew Luck and the Colts are 10-1 in their last 11 matches. The Colts dismantled the Texans last week against an offence that struggled to capitalize on their best drives. This season teams that have managed to beat the Chiefs have had to put points on the board. In the 4 Chiefs losses this year they have averaged 37.5 points a game. The Colts have only scored more than 37 points twice this season so it makes me think, if the Colts are to win, their defense is going to need to do something virtually no team has done this season!
The Chiefs -5 is the play I want to be on. I am a massive Luck fan but find it hard to see the Colts getting enough stops against the Chiefs
Cowboys @Rams
The Cowboys travel to Los Angeles after staying alive by beating the Seahawks 24-22 at home. The Rams have had their feet up for a while and although Gurley sat out the last 2 games of the season you do wonder whether he would have played if required. The Rams have the second highest scoring team in the NFL this season whilst they play a team with very questionable form. The Cowboys were shut out at the Colts on the 16/12, went to OT against the Eagles the week before. More recently they have had close games against the Seahawks, Giants and the Bucs. As an away team there is probably no better place to play for the Cowboys than against the Rams in LA but I think the Rams are going to be too good. That being said I expect the Cowboys to be in this game late and with the line at +7.5 for Cowboys backers I am taking the start against the Rams.
Good luck and let’s make some money this Saturday!!
This Saturday we have two bets that we are happy to get on during Wild card Saturday. Houston host the Colts before Dallas host the Seahawks.
We are keen on the Texans to win at home in a close one and as such we are taking the Texans by 1-13 and we are putting $75 on to win $120.
In the other Saturday game we are backing the home record of the Cowboys to be too much for the Seahawks away who have struggled this year against playoff teams on the road. Again we think this will be close so we are taking the Cowboys by 1-13 and putting $75 to win $116.25.
On Sunday we think the Bears can win but we think this is the closest game of the weekend and as such we are taking the Bears over the reigning Super Bowl champions by 1-6. We have $75 on to win $247.50.
We also have a $10 parlay on all three of these bets to win $275.09
We hope your team wins unless we are betting against them and look out for the FanDuel parlay insurance multi this weekend.
Place a pre-live moneyline bet on the Jets, Giants or Eagles this Sunday. If the local team doesn’t win, you’ll get your money back, up to $50 in site credit at FanDuel Sportsbook. So which games are we taking on?
The Giants are at home to the Cowboys and are -250.
The Jets are +560 against the Patriots away. $50 would win you $280 or you get the credit. Being 14 point away dogs would say this is unlikely but it is a free roll and depending on where results are in other games the Patriots could have very little to play for (or everything).
It’s important to note that I don’t necessarily think these will all win but I am willing to take all three on as my risk is minimal but my upside is $317.86 and my downside is $150 in FanDuel credit.
Good luck and bet responsibly.
Week 17 has loads of games with teams needing to win to clinch home field or win a first round week off and on the flip side a lot of other teams where you would question what a win does to their draft position.
Kansas City have all the motivation required to beat Oakland who really don’t have all that much motivation to win. The Bookmakers setting the line at -14 is somewhat aggressive and safe. Last time the two teams played only three weeks ago the Chiefs travelled to Oakland and got out of there 40-33. Home field is worth another 7+ and we are happy to get on the Chiefs -14.
Chicago travel to the Vikings as 4.5 point dog and this is a game I am happy to be betting on. With the Rams more than likely to beat the 49er’s the first round bye may be out of reach anyway for Chicago. I think the Bear’s will be resting players and ensuring they are fully fit for the playoffs. Cousins and the Vikings have it all to play for and I expect the Vikings to reverse the scoreline from the last time they met in Chicago in November.
My money is split this week but if you have not already take advantage of FanDuel’s massive $500 first bet which is risk free. Follow the link and see the site for more information
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Chiefs -14.5 $80 to win $84
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Vikings -4.5 $100 to win $90.91 with FanDuel
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We are also having these into the LA rams in a $20 Parlay to win $74.25.
The New Orleans Saints are on a 10 game winning stretch and looking to turn that into 11 on Thursday night at Dallas. The Saints are averaging 37.2 points a game this year. They have been unstoppable when Drew Brees has the ball in hand. Doesn’t matter whether he is handing off to Kamara or throwing to Michael Thomas, The Saints have been UNSTOPPABLE on offense. The Cowboys have only allowed 19.4 points a game so far and if they get any where near that on Thursday night football FanDuel will be taking my money.
The Cowboys have won their last 3 including a win over last year’s Super Bowl champions but the league has changed at the pointy end. Scoring is far more predictable from a betting point of view so here is how we view the game. The Saints need to cover -7. Even if Elliott has a huge night I think this should be covered comfortably. The Saints will continue to score, Brees is unstoppable at the moment as his 29TD v 2 Int would demonstrate. Derek Carr is 13TD and 5Int. Kamara has been as devastating as Elliott he just gets the ball less as Brees can put the ball wherever he wants. Carr on the other hand is always an Interception chance and as such relies on Eliott far more.
I can’t see the Cowboys offense a) Scoring enough to stay with the Saints and b) Can’t see their defense forcing turnovers or punts that will keep the score down. If you have not already take the FanDuel $500 risk free bet on the Saints -7. For our regular followers we will be talking:
The Saints -7 for $100 and hope to wipe the mistake of the Steelers prior to Thanksgiving.
Week 11 NFL TOP TIPS:
Week 10 Recap:
Week 10 of the NFL was profitable for followers with just over $133 extra in the account to attack week 11. Some great lessons have been learnt in the last couple of weekends. Week 10 saw us miss a 5 leg Parlay but on reflection in future we will probably try and have less legs but more value.
My best two bets last weekend, Chargers -10 and the Rams to win by 1-13 both saluted. The read on the Rams was particularly pleasing as we recognized the Seahawks strengths and the way they match up against the Rams. Both game have gone down to a big play in the 2 minute warning with the Rams winning both by slim margins. +240 represented far better value than the Seahawks at the line even though it came down to the wire.
Week 11 Top Bets Preview:
Onto Week 11 with profitability our number one priority although we are going to start a new category for our parlays but restrict to three legs.
This week we like Drew Brees and the Saints to continue on and such is the way the Saints offence is dominating that I expect them to again cover the -7.5 spread. The Eagles have been there about through the first 10 weeks but the Saints are in rare form. 10 and 1 from 4th down conversions this season has been a stat that highlights just how hard it is to get the ball back from the Saints. Carson Wentz is still a top 10 rated QB in the NFL this season but I like the Saints to continue to score big which will see them cover the -7.5. I’m having $75 on to win $68.
My second bet of the week will be on the Steelers to cover against Blake Bortles and the Jacksonville Jaguars. Big Ben and the Steelers are now on track and still have a strong argument to make it to this years Super Bowl and I expect them to demonstrate their class this week and to put a knife in the Jaguars season. -5 is great value and I’m advising $75 on to win $68
As promised I am simplifying the parlay this week and adding some juice. We are outlaying $50 and taking the Titans Moneyline +112 into the Panthers -4 into the Steelers -5 for to win $336.33.
In summary this weeks TOP BETS:
As always gamble responsibly and good luck
Recap
Last week our top two tips covered easily but for some reason I went against the old adage “Don’t put good money on bad teams” and I included the Bills as +10 home dog. Khalil Mack didn’t even suit up but Nathan Peterman threw 3 interceptions and is now in the conversation for the worst QB’s in the history of the NFL.
Anyway, from our starting stack of $200 we finished with $229.10 but we gave a lot back on the Seahawks and Bills.
This week for new FanDuel Sportsbook customers in New Jersey looking to get in on the action we have an exclusive RISK FREE BET up to $500 when you join today and place your first bet.
Week 10
Tip 1:
The LA Chargers play an under fire Oakland in the AFC West in a matchup we saw only a month ago. On that day the Rivers threw for 339 yards and 2 TD’s in a 26-10 victory. Since then the Raiders have lost their last 3 games by a combined 71 points and have been outscored 103-34 in those 3 games. The Raiders have allowed Derek Carr to be sacked an incredible 24 times at the halfway point of the season. I am not sure that there is a line big enough for me to not bet here so my favourite play this week is Chargers -10 at +100 and I am going to be having $75 on to win $75.
Tip 2:
The LA Rams only just got over the Seahawks last time they played just over a month ago 33-31 in Seattle. Todd Gurley had 3 touchdowns, Goff threw for 321 yards but this game still came down to a 4th and 1 with 1:39 left on the clock. Marcus Peters was beaten twice on big plays by Russell Wilson throwing the long ball and as continues to be the concern with the Rams, they continue to concede points to solid opposition. For me the 10 point start is a bit much but I do like the Rams to win and as such I am taking The Rams to win by 1-13 at +140. I have $75 on to win $105
Tip 3:
In addition to this we are taking a 5 team parlay Atlanta, New Orleans, KC, LAR and LAC straight up on the money line and I am betting $50 to win $112.64
In summary Sportsbook Selects Top Bets for Week 10 are:
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5 team money line parlay on Atlanta, New Orleans, KC, LAR and LAC (Bet $50 to win $112.64)
Hopefully new bettors are taking the deposit bonus and then using their risk free bet on the LA Chargers. This means no matter what on Sunday night you will have at least $75 in your account from your $100 deposit and that’s if they all lose. If just the Chargers cover you have $150, if just the Rams win 1-13 you have $180, if they both win you have $330 and if the parlay gets up as well you will have turned your $100 into $492.64 Let’s get it.
Sunday represents the next opportunity to take advantage of some exceptional betting games in the NFL. There are some great games that should go down to the wire and some great promotions to bet into to take advantage of this. FanDuel has an offer that if your money line bet loses by 6 or less you can get up to a $50 refund. In addition to this there is the matched deposit bonus of 100% which means deposit $100 and bet with $200.
FanDuel also has an offer for new users that if you lose your first bet you will get your money back in credit in your account and if you win it’s business as usual. This is up to $500 which is an amazing opportunity to have a free hit and as such we are taking it. Kansas City are -7.5 against Cleveland and our model has this line at -11.5 so we are more than happy to back Mahones, Hunt, Hill and Kelce to continue to score as they have done all season and to cover the spread here. We know they are away to Cleveland but believe their scoring power is going to be too much for Cleveland who are averaging 21 points a game. If we are wrong we are happy in the knowledge that first time bettors get their money back here.
Our second option for the first bet refund offer is Tom Brady and the New England Patriots to cover the -5.5 as a home favourite. Rodgers was amazing last week and helped those taking the big point headstart easily cover against the Rams but Foxborough presents a far greater challenge and we expect the Patriots to control this game at home. ELO ratings have this spread at -10 whilst we have it at -7.5 but we are confident Brady and co can win by a touchdown.
The 10.5 point spread for the Bears to cover whilst travelling to Buffalo is far too much and the models say bet the double digit home dog in this game and we will. I will be having a small bet on Buffalo to win this game at home straight up and Ill be hoping at worst they get within 6 which will mean a refund on my bet but at best +460.
The Seahawks host the Chargers in what promises to be a close game however wth Seahawks the most improved offensive line in the NFL we see that Wilson will have far more options at home this Sunday and as such we are happy to take the home team in what the bookmakers have as a coin flip. We expect this to be close as well so see the opportunity for the refund for getting within 6 points is well and truly alive.
Our Plays Kansas City -7.5 $60 to win $54.55, New England -5.5 $60 to win $54.55, Bills +10.5 $35 to win $29.17, Bills Moneyline +460 $15 to win $69, Seahawks Moneyline -108 $30 to win $27.78, As always gamble responsibly.
