Happy Championship weekend!
With the Rams travelling to New Orleans and Tom Brady and the Patriots heading to what could be some arctic conditions in Kansas City, we have some serious teams playing to qualify for the SuperBowl.
We all know that these are the four highest scoring teams in the NFL and many are going to be taking the over. It’s natural to do so as it’s more exciting to be cheering for the score than the defensive stop. 56.5 is the over/under in both games. One is indoors and the other looks like being in cold but stable conditions. I don’t generally bet the under/over and I won’t be tomorrow but if I was I would be taking the over in the Chiefs/Patriots game. I think Mahomes and the Chiefs will get points on the board early which will create a shootout. This season has shown that to beat the Chiefs you need to rack up a big score.
That being said I think the Chiefs record at Arrowhead and the Patriots record on the road has me thinking the Chiefs can win and can cover the -3. A team that scores as heavily as the Chiefs is always value to cover a line that is 3 or under. Mahomes and Hill in particular may be a bit too much to handle for the Patriots and when it does turn into a shootout I am not sure the Patriots can keep up.
Drew brees and the Saints seem like they are in a season that has greater things in line for them despite not being overly impressive last week. The Saints to be honest were lucky to get out of the game and if it wasn’t for a dropped catch inside the 30 with plenty of time on the clock the Eagles may have been back in the NFC Championship game. The Rams were impressive and never looked in much trouble against the Cowboys and covered the -4.5 spread. I think this is going to be extremely tight and could come down to a play inside the 2 minute warning. As a result I am leaning towards the Rams at the line.
LA Rams +3